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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 7, 2009 23:56:59 GMT -5
Dynasty league, salary cap, etc... too complicated to explain briefly.
Wondering if Bobby Ryan is worth the #3 overall pick, straight up.
The pick is in a draft that WILL NOT include 2009 NHL draft picks (tavares, hedman, etc.). It's only guys that were FAs this summer (Gaborik, Hossa, Sedins, Havlat, Cammalleri, Bouwmeester, etc.)
I have the #2 and #3 picks in this draft and while, yes, I would love to use both of them, I simply can't afford it. If, for instance, I took the Sedin twins, it would be such a devastating hit on my cap, my team would suck. So I pretty much have to move this #3 pick.
But is Bobby Ryan worth it? Team is listed below... (for the record, I'm rebuilding...)
C: Krejci, Hensick, Langkow, Kesler LW: Stillman, Kovalchuk, Wolski RW: Simmonds, Bouchard D: Gonchar, Markov, Grebeshkov, Goligoski G: Bryzgalov, C. Mason, Osgood
Total current cap hit: 55.818... Salary cap: 80.000 Holes to fill: 2 defensemen, 2 RW, 1 LW
Prospects: F: Repik, DiBenedetto, Esposito, Maxwell, Pesonen, Nyquist, Karsums, Grachev, Kolarik, Caporusso, Wahl, Desharnais, Marchand, Leitch D: Hickey, Niemi, Eckford, Berglund G: Markstrom, Pogge, Koskinen
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 8, 2009 13:45:30 GMT -5
Heck yes! IMO. He was an absolute beast when selanee went out with injury last year. In a cap keeper this guy is an outstanding asset esspecially if you'd rather have a prospect over a high dollar FA.
This guy has almost unlimited potential. He is still somewhat off the radar because he has not played a full season so his point totals don't stack up against other stars. With kunitz gone, selanne probably only 1 more year he should be a top 6 forward for years to come but I think he will be a top 3 in no time. He should out produce his cap hit easily but he is a RFA after next season and will probably see a 1-2 million dollar pay increase per season easy.
I'd do it in a nano second you'd get a superstar right on the front end of his career pay scale and I would not be shocked to see him outscore some of those other fa you mentioned like hossa, havlat, etc.
If he ends up on second line they now have Koivu there who should feed some pretty passes to this natural goal scorer. If he gets on first line well, holly cow...
But one other thought is using one of your picks to get gustovson. With that signing unfortunetely pogg's future is highly uncertian and gustovson could hedge your bet.
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 10, 2009 11:01:10 GMT -5
It seems like you answered your own question. You have to trade the pick, and you're rebuilding. Sounds like a good deal for a team in your situation.
You might poke around and see what else people will offer, but I don't think you'll get an offer that will knock your socks off considering the GMs in your league are probably smart enough to know you have to trade the pick.
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Chiro
Second Liner
Experience the Evolution
Posts: 475
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Post by Chiro on Jul 10, 2009 21:16:19 GMT -5
I like Ryan and your situation dictates a remedy. I would not be upset at all getting Ryan here.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 11, 2009 13:40:28 GMT -5
alright the guy just said he wants a little more in addition to the 3rd for ryan, but didn't specify.
I'm almost thinking it's an overpayment to add anything. I mean, Sedin for Ryan seems pretty fair... I can't imagine Ryan ever getting over 80-85 points. Should I tack anything on?
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Post by kingsfan24 on Jul 11, 2009 15:34:00 GMT -5
Personally I say just stay back cuz I doubt anyone else will be willing to throw out an offer that's over the value of guys like Cammalleri, Sedins, Gaborik and etc... Too many guys in our league are "out to win trades" and not out there to address their roster needs. Hence the Ersberg deal I did overpay, but I addressed the issue in goal for me, so I could careless.
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 11, 2009 20:07:01 GMT -5
Well Sedin for Ryan could be equal. But you said you couldn't afford Sedin. If Ryan is the same point total for a cheaper price then he carries more value, right?
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 11, 2009 20:44:55 GMT -5
well he's only cheaper for now. Then he hits RFA, I have to pay a signing bonus to keep him, and then take on his new salary (which will surely be pretty high).
but yeah, i'd still say that if the point totals are equal, ryan's value is higher. so i guess paying a little more than just the #3 isn't that bad.
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 11, 2009 20:50:25 GMT -5
I don't know I'm pretty dissapointed he asked for more, I mean 3rd pick one of Gaborik, Hossa, Sedins. If he has no salary room then maybe I understand . If you can get him to budge for a little more and I do mean a little it might be worth it. But if it get's too out of hand I might figure something else out like targeting another player like okposo or vorachek kinda peeps.
I know burning a 2nd or 3rd pick on low tear FA is a bummer but are their any low salary prospects in the FA pool? Is it worth listing the whole FA pool to discuss?
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 12, 2009 2:09:51 GMT -5
okposo is a no... definitely already barked up that tree. voracek... well he belongs to kingsfan. so i could go that way.
there are a few lower salary type guys... i could take khabibulin, for instance. notables are as follows...
LW: Sedin, Cammalleri, Tanguay, Smyth, J. Blake, Ponikarovsky, Hagman, Sturm, Demitra, Ladd, S. Kozlov, J. Staal
C: Sedin, White, McDonald, Filppula, Lombardi, S. Koivu, Arnott, Lang, Gomez, Ott, Peverley.
RW: Kotalik, Ja Williams, Samuelsson, Gaborik, Guerin, Kovalev, Havlat
D: Timonen, Niedermayer, Blake, Bouwmeester, Komisarek, Spacek, Ohlund, Zubov, Meszaros
G: Vokoun, Khabibulin, Biron, Toskala, Emery, Anderson, Boucher
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 12, 2009 9:19:46 GMT -5
I'm not too familiar with the salaries of all but as a guess I would say J. Blake, Peverley, Ja Williams, Toskala might all be low salary depth players for a rebuild. Based on that list trading is best option but if a trade is unavaialable it just might have to do.
What does taking on the salary of say drafting hossa and boumister do to you would you have to drop half your team?
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 12, 2009 13:18:58 GMT -5
pretty much. i've got kovalchuk (7+), markov (5+), gonchar (5+), bryzgalov (4+), langkow (4+), and bouchard (4+). That's 30 million, of 80 million, locked up in 6 of 21 players. add a 7 million onto there (sedin or hossa or whatever), and it's even worse... 46% of my money in 33% of my players. That sounds fine in the NHL, but in fantasy it's bad.
anyway, i'm at the point now where i can either trade #3 and keep mason, or trade mason and draft khabby #3. So i have to figure out what's better... mason+what i get for #3, or khabby+what i get for mason. Tough call.
In terms of this trade... the guy came back asking for HENSICK. Sedin+Hensick for Ryan. Yeah right. So i told him that the most i can give is a low-end prospect or a late draft pick. we'll see what happens.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 14, 2009 18:00:19 GMT -5
If anybody's keeping score... the latest offer was Sedin/Hensick for Ryan/Ehrhoff/Ebbett.... I countered with Ryan/Ehrhoff/O'Reilly. He turned that down. So now we're taking Hensick/O'Reilly out of it... trying to work with Sedin+ for Ryan.
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 15, 2009 15:02:33 GMT -5
It would be a bummer to give up a prospect in the deal unless it is a lessor prospect.
If things don't work out there are a lot of young toronto players in hagman, ponekorovski, and Blake there that should be top 6. As toronto rebuilds and gets better they could see regular 55-70 pt seasons and maybe develop to more. Of course could get shipped out of town and become roll players as well.
Jason Williams if he can stay put and stay healthy can put up numbers far beyond his cap hit he might be a nice sleeper pick
How is Gustovson entering your league? Will he be in this draft?
Fippula is better than his totals because wings top 6 is so hard to crack. With hossa, and maybe hudler out of town he could get some shots esspecially if Leno struggles. He maybe a good rebuild pick.
Stall is good but pits pays him for what he would score if he was on first or second line he has a bad $ to point ratio but so much dang talent.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 15, 2009 21:13:20 GMT -5
gustavsson will be in our amateur draft (not this draft) since he still meets the JV requirements (under 33 with fewer than 65 NHL GP is the requirement for goalies).
is Ryan/Ehrhoff for Sedin/Hensick a fair trade, understanding that with league settings, Ryan is slightly more valuable than Sedin?
Hensick and Ehrhoff are both such wild cards this year...
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 16, 2009 10:37:11 GMT -5
Curious, you are assuming Sedin from the 3rd pick right? If sedins go 1 and 2 it might be a different player no?
Its tough to give up Hensick with sakic retired there is a lot of opportunity for him in Colorodo. He is small but the new rules are sorta negating that as a down side. However the only other notable wolverines I can think of are knuble and morrison. great players but not all stars.
I think for your purposes this trade is good. Losing a good prospect stinks but at this point its almost a certainty that ryan will produce lightyears more and may even out produce sedins. Ehrhoff is a great hedge against loosing Hensick. He seems to have a bright future although isnt necissaily a first pairing D but he is a pretty high scoring for a second pairing D.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 16, 2009 12:18:36 GMT -5
That 3rd pick will actually end up being Bouwmeester, oddly enough. That's who this guy wants. But I'm guessing the draft order will be something like... Hossa, Sedin, Bouwmeester, Sedin, Gaborik, Havlat, Cammalleri.... something to that effect.
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 16, 2009 12:48:44 GMT -5
Ok but just to be clear the trade is actually 3rd pick / Hensick for Ryan / Ehrhoff correct?
If so I give one vote to do it.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 16, 2009 13:28:28 GMT -5
yeah that's right... it's just the pick, not the player.
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 16, 2009 23:33:38 GMT -5
I'm on the fence for the deal, so I don't have any useful info to offer. I guess it really depends on how much the 3rd overall pick would handcuff you.
I just wanted to point out IMO Ehrhoff will be dealt by the start of the year. The Sharks have 7 D-men signed at over $1.5 million and four of them at over $3 million. They've also got Boyle, Blake and Vlasic who can play the PP for them, which I think makes Ehrhoff the most expendable guy on the team. The Sharks only have 9 forwards under contract and only $600 000 in cap space to work with. Not to mention the fact that the Sharks were going to apparently 'shake things up' this offseason.
I think he could be dealt to Ottawa in a deal for Heatley (Marleau goin the other way?), or even to the Canucks (for Raymond?), because the 'Nucks need a puck moving guy like him.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 16, 2009 23:56:47 GMT -5
sounds to me like a trade would be great for him, right? i like that trade though... ehrhoff for raymond. imagine what a change of scenery might do for mason raymond. yum.
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 17, 2009 11:17:28 GMT -5
I don't really like the idea of trading one of our only young forwards, but it might have to be done to get a decent puck mover. I would rather trade Hansen, but he probably carries much less value than Raymond.
I think a trade would help Ehrhoff's value. It would definitely increase his PP time. If he were to go to the Canucks he could be on the first PP unit, with Salo on the other side.
I think he would be the second PP option in Ottawa (behind Kuba) if he were to go there too. So a trade would make him #2 offensively for a team, rather than 4th or 5th.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 17, 2009 11:32:10 GMT -5
Before signing off on a trade, I sent out a message to a few other GMs I knew were interested... currently, two offers are on the table. Which would you take?
Option 1) Ryan/Ehrhoff/Soderberg FOR 3rd overall (Sedin)/Hensick
Option 2) Burns/Palushaj/Gilroy FOR 3rd overall (Sedin)
Still hoping I'll have 1 more offer to add to that... but of those two, which do you prefer?
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 17, 2009 11:54:58 GMT -5
I still like ryan he is someone you can add as a corner stone to your rebuild instead of waiting around to see if people pan out and break the lineup. I like burns a lot but they move him between forward and D a lot and it seems to disrupt his production. If they would leave him at D he plays the game somewhat like mike green. It will be interesting to see how minnisota changes this season though. I like the burns deal because you give only the pick but it could go nowhere. Even though you give up hinsick I don't see you ever regreting the Ryan deal.
It almost comes down to talnet vs prospects. If you like the prospects the burns deal, if you want more of a sure thing the ryan deal, if you just want to eat the salary sedin or gaborik.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 17, 2009 17:02:08 GMT -5
Option 3) Zherdev/Keith/prospect for #3/prospect
this one is a lot like the ryan/ehrhoff deal except... ryan>zherdev, keith>ehrhoff, prospect>soderberg, prospect<hensick.
so i'm giving less, but i might not be getting more. i'm real close to taking Option 1 from above... anyone want to stop me?
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 17, 2009 23:03:38 GMT -5
i've looked for help elsewhere, and nobody seems to be able to find a better side between these two offers. i promise, this is the last time i ask for help in a while!
1) Ryan/Ehrhoff/Soderberg FOR #3 overall/Hensick
2) Perron/Keith/Myers FOR #3 overall
any help is greatly appreciated!!
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 18, 2009 1:16:56 GMT -5
Too tough to call. I think it comes down to how much you like Hensick? Is he an 80 point potential guy or a 60 point potential guy? If he's only 60 then I'd take Ryan.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Jul 18, 2009 12:47:04 GMT -5
orrrrrrr...... little/sbisa/pavelec/brian boyle FOR #3 overall.... i would take pavelec out of this one and try to add another element, but this one's actually a fairly decent offer. not sure it compares with the other two though.
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Post by Zipper14 on Jul 18, 2009 13:40:17 GMT -5
I'm not high on Sbisa or Brian Boyle offensively, so I don't like that deal a ton. I don't think Boyle will even make the Rangers lineup this year.
I think Little and Hensick will have similar careers. They're both centers who will need big snipers beside them in order to put up numbers.
If you need to fill some roster spots then it might be a deal to think about, but I don't like it as much as the other two.
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Post by fukufuji on Jul 18, 2009 17:39:58 GMT -5
I still like ryan but at least the new #4 deal doesn't have you give up any prospects and you get a lot in return. I am of the oppinion Ryan is one of the superstar ekements needed in your rebuild. But the little deal is not bad at all.
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