Post by fukufuji on Jul 19, 2009 1:07:55 GMT -5
www.yousendit.com/download/Y1RyRFFRTXZVVG1Ga1E9PQ
I crunched some numbers to begin my draft rankings for next season. If anyone is interested I would love to share and accept any feedback if anyone wants to use.
Summary: I take last 3 seasons of data, benchmark the leading player in per game scoring for each of the following Cats (G,A,PP,SHP,SOG,+/-,PIM). I like per game calculations over strait season totals because I like to see people like Tim Connelly, Marian Gaborik pop up for draft consideration.
Basically the math is this - the leader in a cat over last 3 seasons (like ovechkin's goals) would get a 1.00 in in that cat. Everyone else would get a decimal of .99 or lower by division of Ovechkin's per game goals divided into their per game goals. All the Cats are then summed to provide the "greatness" number which is a players overall value to a fantasy league with these cats, The list can be sorted by greatness or each individual cat.
Weaknesses:
If anyone wants to provide feedback and also maybe help get rookies and prospects ranked I'm game to chat. Point projections would be another awesome feature but I don't have any ideas how to do it.
I crunched some numbers to begin my draft rankings for next season. If anyone is interested I would love to share and accept any feedback if anyone wants to use.
Summary: I take last 3 seasons of data, benchmark the leading player in per game scoring for each of the following Cats (G,A,PP,SHP,SOG,+/-,PIM). I like per game calculations over strait season totals because I like to see people like Tim Connelly, Marian Gaborik pop up for draft consideration.
Basically the math is this - the leader in a cat over last 3 seasons (like ovechkin's goals) would get a 1.00 in in that cat. Everyone else would get a decimal of .99 or lower by division of Ovechkin's per game goals divided into their per game goals. All the Cats are then summed to provide the "greatness" number which is a players overall value to a fantasy league with these cats, The list can be sorted by greatness or each individual cat.
Weaknesses:
- Rookiees and prospects have no stats to get ranked
- Players with less than 50 games (Ville Leino) are hard to statistically validate and are moved to a seperate list for now
- Players like Eric Stall who's career high season was a few seasons ago may be ranked too highly in comparison for what they will do next season.
- Likewise players on the decline like Alfredson, Sundin, Lidstrom may be ranked to highly.
- on the flip side players that are very young and still have their Line 4 seasons in their numbers may be ranked too low. Kreiji, Praise
- CAT dominators can sneak too high up the rankings like Jordan stalls short handed goals, Carcillo's PIM, Merik Malik's +/-
- Unfortunately the numbers can not look forward so if a player changes teams or is going to be moved onto a different line next season the numbers do not catch that kind of thing.
- The data I could find only has my league's format so if you have faceoffs for example the list does not include that cat.
If anyone wants to provide feedback and also maybe help get rookies and prospects ranked I'm game to chat. Point projections would be another awesome feature but I don't have any ideas how to do it.