Post by The Hockey Hitman on Sept 14, 2008 23:15:30 GMT -5
Thanks to thelaughingtree from Hockey Informer for giving permission to repost this here. Its great stuff!
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There's a lot of info here to take in, but I'm hoping we can start a good discussion on the relevance of scheduling in regards to Fantasy Hockey.
Table 1
img352.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table1gl5.jpg
This spreadsheet shows pretty much the raw data... The days that each team plays on each week through the season.
Table 2
img131.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table2nt0.jpg
This is modeled similar to Skate or Die's spreadsheet, which highlights the # of games played per week by each team, with the fantasy playoffs being the focal point... It seems like Chicago has the best schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
Just to try something new, I took is another step by sectioning off the season into 3 parts to see if there were teams that had more games in different parts of the season... i.e. Could you draft a player on a team that played more games in the first part of the season & then trade him mid season for an player who had more games in the 2nd half? It looks like there is not much fantasy value in this though as the schedule is pretty balanced between all the teams give or take a few games.
Table 3a
img139.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table3aaf8.jpg
This table shows how many games each team plays on each day for the season.
It also highlights the busy game days (Tues, Thurs & Sat) vs the slower days (M, W, F, Su) & if each team is above or below the league avg for games played on a particular day through the season.
The goal is to find some sort of balance in your fantasy team. Whatever your roster is, your chances of winning are lowered theoretically if all your players play on the same day (as you'll be benching too many players).
If the majority of the games are played on T, Th & Sa, then would players on teams that leaned more towards the off days (M, W, F, Su) hold more value?.. Or give you more opportunity to place them in your fantasy roster?
For instance, look at the Ducks... Yes, they are below the league average for monday, but for the rest of the week, they favor more of a schedule that goes against the average of the league... While most of your fantasy roster will be in T, Th & Sa, the Ducks players that you have will be played more on W, F, & Su
Lets look at Toronto... They play more often on the busy days where you are likely to have a fuller roster. If you had Tucker on your team - he may be scoring some - you picked him up for some occasional points & occasional PIMs - a decent player - on the fantasy fringe... Chances are, you will end up benching him often though since he will be competing with other payers for a roster spot. (EDIT - Whoops! Tucker's not on TOR anymore... but you get the point).
I'm just trying new things here (so know its not a science)... but here's an attempt of coming up with a ranking system to illustrate schedule strength in regards to fantasy games
Table 3b
img379.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table3bgf4.jpg
This Table takes the information from Table 3a & rates it in the following way:
-1 for each game under the league avg on slow days
+1 for each game above the league avg on slow days
-1 for each game above the league ave on busy days
+1 for each game below the league avg on busy days
From this you can see that teams like the Ducks, Blackhawks, Rangers & Devils favor a schedule on the slower days. Teams like Toronto, Boston, Coyotes & Sharks favor a schedule more towards the busy days. Teams like Blues, Hurricanes, Penguins & Islanders favor a schedule more in line with the league average. The Ducks are not necessarily more valuable than the Sharks players, rather, this represents a spectrum of busy day teams & slow day teams.
Again balance is the key... Based on this info, I might be inclined to draft more evenly from all spectrums & try not to have a roster full of players from one side of the spectrum.
Table 3c shows the spectrum
profile.imageshack.us/user/th...table3chc8.jpg
Okay, I know this is long winded, may not hold the ultimate solid fantasy value, & some of you probably think I am insane, but regardless, we have to try new things to get better & its one way to look at the schedule - I'm hoping that we can take the information & try to pick it apart further for fantasy relevance, or at least generate some good discussion.
This was a bit of work to put together... Its kind of my thanks to you guys who have helped my teams these past few years. Hopefully the links work - PM me if you want me to email you any of these excel documents.
_________________________________________________
There's a lot of info here to take in, but I'm hoping we can start a good discussion on the relevance of scheduling in regards to Fantasy Hockey.
Table 1
img352.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table1gl5.jpg
This spreadsheet shows pretty much the raw data... The days that each team plays on each week through the season.
Table 2
img131.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table2nt0.jpg
This is modeled similar to Skate or Die's spreadsheet, which highlights the # of games played per week by each team, with the fantasy playoffs being the focal point... It seems like Chicago has the best schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
Just to try something new, I took is another step by sectioning off the season into 3 parts to see if there were teams that had more games in different parts of the season... i.e. Could you draft a player on a team that played more games in the first part of the season & then trade him mid season for an player who had more games in the 2nd half? It looks like there is not much fantasy value in this though as the schedule is pretty balanced between all the teams give or take a few games.
Table 3a
img139.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table3aaf8.jpg
This table shows how many games each team plays on each day for the season.
It also highlights the busy game days (Tues, Thurs & Sat) vs the slower days (M, W, F, Su) & if each team is above or below the league avg for games played on a particular day through the season.
The goal is to find some sort of balance in your fantasy team. Whatever your roster is, your chances of winning are lowered theoretically if all your players play on the same day (as you'll be benching too many players).
If the majority of the games are played on T, Th & Sa, then would players on teams that leaned more towards the off days (M, W, F, Su) hold more value?.. Or give you more opportunity to place them in your fantasy roster?
For instance, look at the Ducks... Yes, they are below the league average for monday, but for the rest of the week, they favor more of a schedule that goes against the average of the league... While most of your fantasy roster will be in T, Th & Sa, the Ducks players that you have will be played more on W, F, & Su
Lets look at Toronto... They play more often on the busy days where you are likely to have a fuller roster. If you had Tucker on your team - he may be scoring some - you picked him up for some occasional points & occasional PIMs - a decent player - on the fantasy fringe... Chances are, you will end up benching him often though since he will be competing with other payers for a roster spot. (EDIT - Whoops! Tucker's not on TOR anymore... but you get the point).
I'm just trying new things here (so know its not a science)... but here's an attempt of coming up with a ranking system to illustrate schedule strength in regards to fantasy games
Table 3b
img379.imageshack.us/my.php?image=table3bgf4.jpg
This Table takes the information from Table 3a & rates it in the following way:
-1 for each game under the league avg on slow days
+1 for each game above the league avg on slow days
-1 for each game above the league ave on busy days
+1 for each game below the league avg on busy days
From this you can see that teams like the Ducks, Blackhawks, Rangers & Devils favor a schedule on the slower days. Teams like Toronto, Boston, Coyotes & Sharks favor a schedule more towards the busy days. Teams like Blues, Hurricanes, Penguins & Islanders favor a schedule more in line with the league average. The Ducks are not necessarily more valuable than the Sharks players, rather, this represents a spectrum of busy day teams & slow day teams.
Again balance is the key... Based on this info, I might be inclined to draft more evenly from all spectrums & try not to have a roster full of players from one side of the spectrum.
Table 3c shows the spectrum
profile.imageshack.us/user/th...table3chc8.jpg
Okay, I know this is long winded, may not hold the ultimate solid fantasy value, & some of you probably think I am insane, but regardless, we have to try new things to get better & its one way to look at the schedule - I'm hoping that we can take the information & try to pick it apart further for fantasy relevance, or at least generate some good discussion.
This was a bit of work to put together... Its kind of my thanks to you guys who have helped my teams these past few years. Hopefully the links work - PM me if you want me to email you any of these excel documents.