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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 7, 2008 20:30:22 GMT -5
Just one year removed from a Stanley Cup Finals appearance, and the Pittsburgh Penguins already look like a strikingly different team. As expected, the Penguins have retained their strong corps of young players on entry-level contracts, but through a series of off-season goofs, the team looks a bit ragged around the edges. Nonetheless, with five players named Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, Whitney, and Fleury, it seems nearly impossible for this team to be out of the running.
Following this post, there will be a post with my analysis of some Penguins forwards. Then, I’ll post again with an analysis of defensemen and goaltenders. Enjoy.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 7, 2008 20:30:35 GMT -5
Sidney Crosby returns as the team’s captain. The 21-year old has achieved megastar status in the hockey world, clearly staking his claim as one of the greatest to ever play the game. Despite a mid-season ankle injury last year, Crosby managed 72 points (24+48) in just 53 games. That’s on pace for 111 points (37+74), one behind scoring leader Alex Ovechkin’s 112, and easily #1 in assists (ahead of Joe Thornton’s NHL-best 67 helpers). Sid will undoubtedly return in top form this season, and can be expected to score in the 120 point range. Look for the speedy Pascal Dupuis to maintain that LW spot on the top line. Fantasy Advice: Despite Yahoo! ranking him at #20 (no joke), I think we can all agree that Sid should go with one of the top two picks in almost every fantasy pool.
Not all news was bad news last January. Crosby’s injury finally gave sophomore Evgeni Malkin the opportunity to prove his superstar status to the world. Gino tallied an astounding 36 points in the 21 games that Crosby missed – a feat that will define his career, perhaps even more than his 6-goal, start-of-career streak in 2006. Malkin fell comfortably into the second-line center position last season, jumping to Crosby’s wing on the powerplay and whenever the team needed a boost. With Petr Sykora on his right side, Malkin should easily equal last year’s production. Look for Gino to chase that 50 goal milestone, and expect 55-60 helpers to boost his point total toward the 110 mark. As always, be cautious of Malkin near the end of the season – off-season laziness seems to make this all-star tired by the 75th game, as is evidenced by his lackluster performance in the finals vs. Detroit. This is of minor concern, however, as Malkin is a top 5 player in nearly every fantasy pool. Fantasy Advice: Malkin really showed up last year and proved how valuable he is. He’s a definite top 5 pick in most pools, especially keepers.
Pascal Dupuis comes next in my list. The 29-year old is, in my opinion, one of the most underpaid, underrated left wingers in the National Hockey League. Earning a meager $1.4M, Dupuis has proven his value on Crosby’s wing, and should maintain that position this season. Dupuis’s speed through the neutral zone is nothing short of breathtaking. Finally the Penguins have found a player for whom Sidney Crosby doesn’t need to pull up and wait after the breakout. Dupuis scored just 15 points (10+5) in 62 games as a Thrasher last year, but showed us just how bad the Southeast is when he closed out with 12 points (2+10) in his 16 games in the black and gold. Clearly, Dupuis has found his calling. I’m looking for 55 points out of this guy in 08-09, not to mention is immeasurable value for Sidney Crosby. Fantasy Advice: He’s not going to be your star, but snag Dupuis in the later rounds. He’s a definite dark horse. Update: It looks like Dupuis will be starting out on L3. There's definite potential there, especially if Jordan Staal remains at center on that line (with Kennedy on the right side), but they'll be called upon for a more physical role, and will see less ice time. I still think Dupuis has a shot at L1, so keep an eye on him.
Rather than play to his potential, Jordan Staal decided to give the world a perfect definition of ‘sophomore slump’ in 07-08. After an impressive 42-point (29+13) rookie campaign that included an astonishing 7 shorties, Jordan managed just 28 points (12+16) last year with a big goose egg in the shorthanded goals column. What happened? After a slow start, Staal was relegated to line 3 with the likes of Maxime Talbot, Gary Roberts, Tyler Kennedy, and a rotating cast of power forwards. In reality, this was one of the most impressive L3s in the NHL, but they simply did not produce. If Staal can impress on the wing in training camp, he very well could have a shot at playing on Evgeni Malkin’s left. But the simple fact is that Jordan Staal is the poor man’s Malkin; putting the two together doesn’t really make sense. Unfortunately, I think Jordan will find himself in a supporting role again this season, heading up L3 with a far-improved Talbot. Fantasy Advice: Staal will be overlooked this year. In my draft, he wasn’t taken until the 12th round, 133rd overall. Grab him around round 8 or 9, but keep an eye on him – if he starts out slow, trade him high to a more patient manager.
Finally, Petr Sykora, the 12 ½ year veteran was a huge part of the Pens’ success last year. His 63 points (28+35) was his best since 2000-01, and the third best season of his career. He’s only earning $2.75M right now, but with his contract expiring at the end of this year, you’re going to see him playing to impress. Look for a cool 65 from the Czech this year, especially if Gino continues his success. Fantasy Advice: Get him early. He’s a guaranteed 65 points, so take him when the likes of Huselius, Boyes, and Stillman start to go.
Other forwards to watch include: Max Talbot – a fan favorite since the departure of Malone, Talbot has the size and the drive to earn his keep; Janne Pesonen – the Finnish wild card knocked in 78 points (34+44) in just 56 games in Finland’s top league last year, this guy could have a spot on Malkin’s line; Miro Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko – the Islanders imports brought in to fill the void of Hossa, Malone, and Roberts… fat chance. Finally, you’ll have a nice cast of characters with Tyler Kennedy, Jeff Taffe, Eric Godard, and possibly Bill Thomas or Luca Caputi.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 7, 2008 20:30:46 GMT -5
On defense, the Penguins are lead yet again by Sergei Gonchar. Just three short years ago, after signing Gonchar to a five-year, $25 million contract, Pittsburgh fans and management collectively wept as the former Capitals star failed to produce. I unfortunately can’t find those stats, but the scoring defenseman was barely mediocre through January 2006 when he finally found his touch again. Since then, the Russian has had two 65-point seasons, dominating opposing penalty kills again and again. Gonchar can find the back of the net from 60’ better than Fulton Reed (look it up), and he’s sure to put up another solid season. Expect something similar to this past year, with 15+55 as a ceiling. Fantasy Advice: Top 5 defenseman, no doubt about it. Grab him as soon as Lidstrom goes.
Young defenseman Ryan Whitney has grown up before our very eyes in the last three seasons. Despite a slightly disappointing 40 point season last year (compared to 59 in 06-07), I feel confident that Whit will return to form this year. A mid-season slump lead a pissed off Therrien to move Whitney to the wing. This wake up call seemed to work, and all was well again when Ryan moved back to the point. His powerplay production certainly suffered, scoring 22 points (compared to 33 in 06-07). This was, however, a direct result of Kris Letang stealing PP time. Unfortunately, Whitney is, at least temporarily, a moot point. After undergoing foot surgery in August to repair a long-existing problem, Whitney could potentially be out until January. This is worst-case scenario, but he’ll at least miss the first month or two or the season. Fantasy Advice: Let him fall to free agency. Then watch for Yahoo! to list him on IR. Take him then and slide him over to IR. He’ll be gold when he comes back.
Kris Letang was moved up to big squad almost directly last year after graduating from the QMJHL with impressive stats. In 170 games in Val d’Or, Kris had 152 points (52+100) and 309 PIM. Last year with the Penguins he managed 17 points in 63 games, a number that will absolutely go up this year. Look for Letang to get a full 82 games this year, with 35-40 points, many of them on the powerplay in Whitney’s spot. Fantasy Advice: A nice second-tier defenseman that you’ll get late (unless you’re in a pool of Penguins fans). If you’re starting a new keeper league, draft him early.
Other defensemen to watch: Hal Gill, Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi, and maybe even Mark Eaton will be relied upon for the defensive abilities, but none of them have any fantasy-value; Darryl Sydor had just 13 points in 74 Penguins games last year, and seems to be in the twilight of his career; Alex Goligoski, a top prospect currently playing with the Baby Penguins is expected to join the big club while Whitney is out. Goli had 2 points in 3 games with Pittsburgh last season, and could definitely contribute.
In net, Marc-Andre Fleury gave the NHL just a little taste of what he can do last year during the playoffs. His 55 save, 3 goals against effort in Game 5 of the finals was a miraculous thing to see. If Fleury can play with that kind of heart throughout the 08-09 season, he will establish himself as one of the best in the game, in the ranks of Lundqvist, Giguere, and Brodeur (maybe not Luongo, just yet). Fantasy Advice: I think Fleury is a safe bet as your #1 goalie. If you miss out on those top tier guys, scoop him up quickly and reap the rewards.
Dany Sabourin is a fully capable backup in a pinch, but he’s not the kind of guy who can be relied upon to give Marc-Andre a break. He shouldn’t see more than 15 starts this season. Fantasy Advice: Absolutely useless. You’re better off with Pekka Rinne.
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Post by 4diving on Sept 14, 2008 4:12:23 GMT -5
Great post Zoom. Any input that can help shed some light as to who's playing with Crosby and Malkin is huge.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 14, 2008 9:10:17 GMT -5
For the record, Dupuis is just bouncing all over the place... I was reading Rotoworld yesterday and they again placed him on L1 with Crosby and Satan, with Fedotenko on L3.
Dupuis-Crosby-Satan Staal-Malkin-Sykora
I'll keep you posted.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 17, 2008 23:18:50 GMT -5
Not to toot my own horn, but the Pens sported these lines in a training camp scrimmage:
DUPUIS - CROSBY - SATAN STAAL - MALKIN - SYKORA FEDOTENKO - TALBOT - COOKE PESONEN - TAFFE - KENNEDY
ORPIK - GONCHAR GILL - SCUDERI LETANG - EATON SYDOR - GOLIGOSKI
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 18, 2008 9:49:20 GMT -5
got to watch a few minutes of the scrimmage this morning. couple notes...
caputi and pesonen both look great, especially caputi. that kid is faaaast in the neutral zone. also, it looks like staal is going to be taking faceoffs on L2, at least in the defensive zone, before swapping spots with malkin and covering wing. that line should see some major production (staal - malkin - sykora).
also, kris letang looks really sharp so far. that's good news with whitney out.
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 20, 2008 12:16:37 GMT -5
The Penguins lineup for Preseason Game #1 vs. Tampa Bay is surely an indication of their intended line combinations. On the roster tonight will be (these are official names, but the line combos are my creation):
DUPUIS - CROSBY - SATAN STAAL - MALKIN - SYKORA PESONEN - TAFFE - GODARD BEECH - STONE - THOMAS
ORPIK - GONCHAR SYDOR - GOLIGOSKI EATON - LOVEJOY
FLEURY (backup= SABOURIN)
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Post by Zoom Waffles on Sept 30, 2008 17:40:23 GMT -5
More line shiftin... Sykora is sick, so Pesonen has been working out on Malkin's right side. Meanwhile, Kennedy has switched back to his original position as a center. And Fedotenko will get his shot on Crosby's left, with Dupuis moving down to join Cooke and Talbot on L3.
L1: FEDOTENKO - CROSBY - SATAN L2: STAAL - MALKIN - PESONEN L3: COOKE - TALBOT - DUPUIS L4: TAFFE - KENNEDY - GODARD D: LETANG, GOLIGOSKI, GILL, EATON, ORPIK, SYDOR G: FLEURY (backup= SABOURIN) IR: SYKORA sick - should play Thursday vs. Jokerit, GONCHAR out 4-6 months, WHITNEY out 2-3 months, SCUDERI out 1-2 weeks
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