Never too early to speculate deadline deals

[bu11durm]

In my deep keeper league, I'm currently in a spot that if I can't make a trade for a goalie soon, I'll need to look to next year.
Also, I've got Tkachuk, Cole, and Antropov that are all UFAs. And on my team, they are all sort of on the border of keep/no keep (at varied levels).

Just wondering some things like:
a) will they be traded in the NHL?
b) will the trade rumors make them more attractive to trade in fantasy?
c) if they are traded, do you think their output will increase or decrease?
d) even further out, any thoughts on next year for these guys?

(guess you could include guys like Gaborik here but I don't have him)

Any thoughts?

[Zoom Waffles]

it seems like if cole's going anywhere, it's ottawa... probably wouldn't help his fantasy value. Tkachuk I could see movign to some place that'd help, for sure. even pittsburgh, possibly. Tkachuk will only improve with a trade to a playoff-bound team. Antropov might move... i dunno about that one. Rumors include Boston, San Jose, and Philly... they'd all be an improvement for him.

Basically, anybody that's traded from a non-contender to a contender is going to see an improvement, imo. Guys headed the other direction (like Cole) are a waste of time, fantasy-wise.

[Downtown]

Antropov likely will be traded -- Tkachuk probably not. All the stuff I've heard about Cole and Ottawa comes from extremely unreliable sources (you've heard the Buzz, right Garrioch?) with a bunch of nonsense about Spezza.

Tkachuk is quite happy in St. Lou and is not of the mind to go anywhere (and he has the NT clause to back it up). That said, if a genuine Cup contender came calling, he might be more inclined to waive his no movement rights.

Unless your league is very deep, none of these guys should be considered keepers. Trade away.

[Zoom Waffles]

does tkachuk have a stanley cup yet?

[fukufuji]

You bring up some interesting points with those players. I persoanlly don't put a lot of thought into trade impact on players until after the trade has occured. I have never seen any source accuratley predict trades with any consistancey, you just never can count on it to happen and if it does predeict who goes where.

However if you think you can throw in trade roumors to benefit your own trades I think that is very creative and a good idea.

I don't think Tkachuck has a cup ring becasue I think hes only played for Pheonix, St. Loius and Atlanta of which none have ever won the cup.

[Zoom Waffles]

and winnipeg... but you're right... no rings.

[fukufuji]

For some reason I feel like Cole to Ottawa would be a real good fit to help secondary scoring. Cole is way more talented then this year's numbers show. Cole would certainly be worth a look if he moves and is inserted in a top 6 forward positon and PP. It would be nice to see Burke pick up a guy like Cole for Toronto. Not an answer to their problem but could be a building block for cheap given that he clearly does not fit the EDM system.

[bu11durm]

Thanks for the input. Let me say a little about my thoughts...

Since I'm probably about to start to rebuild, this part doesn't affect me much but I just sorta have a hunch that Antropov and/or Tkachuk could lose ice time in a deadline deal. They would go from first line on a bad team to 2nd or 3rd on a good one. So the team would be better, but the player could lose ice time. I remember back to 2006 when the Canes picked u Recchi and Weight. Both were great additions to the team but their points per game went down after the trade as they played on lower lines. (plus Recchi and Weight kinda look alike which has nothing to do with the question). I'm sure there's examples the other way as well.

[bu11durm]

And downtown...

This league is 16 teams with 15 keepers. So that's 240 keepers. Figure 40 goalies 40 defencemen get kept, that's 160 forwards. Antropov and Tkachuk definitely fit in that range. Cole should be in that range but hasn't shown it yet this year (but he could turn it around).

[Zoom Waffles]

Rental players don't necessarily move to L3... obviously, Hossa is an example of someone who didn't. But thinking of Tkachuk... if he were to go to Pittsburgh (75% chance, according to Eklund : he'd almost definitely end up playing with Crosby/Malkin.

[The Hockey Hitman]

a) will they be traded in the NHL?

Tkachuk - Absolutely. Tkachuk is an UFA this summer and you can bet St. Louis will look to add a young player or draft pick before losing him for nothing. But don't be surprised if he re-signs in St. Louis in the off-season, again.

Cole - Just recently Cole has begun to find his stride in Edmonton. It all depends on the Oilers playoff chances. If they look like a sure fire bet to make it, or at least a pretty good chance, I doubt they will deal him. If they are out of the playoff picture, or a long-shot, I'd expect him to go to a contender, more than likely an eastern conference contender, maybe back to Carolina.

Antropov - I can't imagine a scenario where he stays in Toronto. I'm betting hes shipped out, he'll be one of many Leafs moving before the deadline.

b) will the trade rumors make them more attractive to trade in fantasy?
I don't think it will make the more attractive just simply because they might be traded. If they are moved to better team, their values should go up though.

c) if they are traded, do you think their output will increase or decrease?
Depends on where they end up.

d) even further out, any thoughts on next year for these guys?
Looking towards the future, Antropov probably has the most value in keeper leagues. When he finally does leave Toronto, I'd expect big things. Tkachuk turns 37 in March...and although guys like Bill Guerin, Doug Weight and Mark Recchi have shown that an aging vet can still produce in the right situation, it brings his overall fantasy value down lower and lower. Cole has been so inconsistent throughout his career and when he is on, he usually gets hurt because he drives to the net so hard and plays such a crash and bang style that its inevitable. Hes not someone I would go hard after in any fantasy league, let alone a keeper.

[Tomcat]

I heard some talk that Antropov would be a good fit in Vancouver to play again with Sundin? I also heard some talk about him going to the Blue Jackets. As an Antropov owner, I'd prefer the later. But Antropov and Sundin could be good for each other.

I'm sure the Leafs would like to have moved Toskala? What playoff team team would want him? He's been horrible all year. At this point, he'd bring back garbage in return. I think he stays put.

Biron? I just traded Jason Blake for Nitty last week. I didn't want to do it, but had to protect my Biron pick ( Biron also hasn't been all that swift thus far). I'm liking that move more right now... second start in a row for Nitty tonight. I'd be a frustrated mo fo right now watching Nitty steal my starts; it's been pissing me off all year as a matter of fact. Again, What playoff team could use a goalie? I'm thinking now they give Nitty a chance to steal the job, and maybe shop Biron?

[idiopathic]

I don't think you will see as many trades in the NHL this year as in years past. The trades that do happen, won't include many star players. No Hossa to Pitt this year, no Stillman to Ottawa.... It's going to be a slow and boring trade deadline

[The Hockey Hitman]

There is plenty of players who could be traded near or at the trade deadline that could make this years one of the better one in recent memory. Theres actually so much potential for the trade deadline to be absolutely huge, that is scary! Names like Jay Bouwmeester, Niklas Backstrom, Tomas Kaberle, Brian Gionta, Marian Gaborik, Jason Spezza, Ilya Kovalchuk, Milan Hejduk, Martin Havlat, Kyle Calder, Ryan Whitney, Mark Recchi, Jonathan Cheechoo, Patrick O'Sullivan, Doug Weight, Bill Guerin, Mike Comrie, Derek Morris, Dwayne Roloson, Filip Kuba, Sean O'Donnell, Chris Neil, Andy McDonald, Jordan Leopold, Jere Lehtinen, Jaroslav Spacek, Tomas Plekanec, Adrian Aucoin, Mike Knuble, Mathieu Schneider, Ales Kotalik, Maxim Afinogenov, Niclas Havelid, Greg Zanon, Antoine Vermette, Steve Sullivan, Nathan Horton, Pascal Leclaire, Mattias Ohlund, Ruslan Salei, Scottie Upshall, Cam Barker and Michael Nylander, among others, are all available for the right price...I know personally, I am rooting for lots and lots of trades!

[Tomcat]

The NHL needs to fix Betman's lack of trade mess. Fans want trades. Yes, even American fans Gary, so fix it so more trades can happen. This is a really disappointing part of the NHL for me, no more trades. I used to LOVE trade deadline time. Now....it sucks and we fans get fuked yet again by Betman's NHL petri dish from hell.

[idiopathic]

Jay Bouwmeester, Niklas Backstrom, Tomas Kaberle, Brian Gionta, Marian Gaborik, Jason Spezza, Ilya Kovalchuk, Milan Hejduk, Martin Havlat, Kyle Calder, Ryan Whitney, Mark Recchi, Jonathan Cheechoo, Patrick O'Sullivan, Doug Weight, Bill Guerin, Mike Comrie, Derek Morris, Dwayne Roloson, Filip Kuba, Sean O'Donnell, Chris Neil, Andy McDonald, Jordan Leopold, Jere Lehtinen, Jaroslav Spacek, Tomas Plekanec, Adrian Aucoin, Mike Knuble, Mathieu Schneider, Ales Kotalik, Maxim Afinogenov, Niclas Havelid, Greg Zanon, Antoine Vermette, Steve Sullivan, Nathan Horton, Pascal Leclaire, Mattias Ohlund, Ruslan Salei, Scottie Upshall, Cam Barker and Michael Nylander,

The players that you mentioned all dont seem to be ready for trade.... For instance, Minn will not part ways with Backstrom, he is the engine of that team. Kovy is safe, he's not going anywhere. Gabby, is still safe... no one wants injured goods. I think Whitney is safe, he's one of the cogs Pittsburgh wants to keep. Horton is safe, because he came up with the team, and they want him to be the next Jokinen.

The rest of the players, except Spezza...speculation there, are not what you would call star players. And, yes, they could be traded. People like Nylander, Guerin, and Weight. Players that can be gotten for cheap, and have playoff experience. But, I do not think many teams will pull the plug on their young players. But, we shall see how it all plays out.

[The Hockey Hitman]

There has been rampant speculation all season long about most of those players possibly being shopped and or available for trade. So my point, was that there is plenty of potential for it to be an eventful trade deadline.

You don't know that any of those players are "safe" as you put it. What makes you think Kovalchuk is safe? Theres an idiot running the Thrashers and hes notorious for making bone-headed moves. That factor alone is enough reason that Kovalchuk could be dealt, but theres also the fact that Atlanta can't fill an arena, has trouble attracting free agents, and Kovalchuk is an UFA after next year to boot. I for one hope it doesn't happen, but the potential for it to happen is undeniable.

Minnesota looks like they are going to have trouble making the playoffs...and talks between Backstrom and the Wild on a new contract have been described as "nonexistent." Josh Harding is waiting in the wings...and it could be argued that Minnesota's system is one where many goaltenders can thrive in. So again, plenty of potential there for him to be dealt. I wouldn't call Backstrom the "engine" of the Wild either, the "engine" of the Wild is their coach, Jacques Lemaire.

While we're on Minnesota, you mentioned that Gaborik is safe because nobody wants damaged goods. Well theres about a 99% chance he won't re-sign with Minnesota, period. So if Minnesota can get a decent draft pick or prospect, or package of both from a team that wants to try and sign him before the summer, I assure you it will happen.

Pittsburgh has Letang and Goligoski and a healthy Gonchar, and have an immense need for scoring line wingers to compliment Crosby. Whitney is a trade target because his overall play has not been up to the par when he has been healthy the past year or so. Plus hes making $4 million per season and the Pens have a lot of big contracts spread out over many years...something is going to give eventually.

Horton won't move because Florida wants him to be the next Jokinen? That doesn't seem to be very appropriate. Florida wants Horton to become the power forward he was thought to be when they draft him some 5 years ago. Hes yet to crack the 70 point barrier but even besides that, his overall play leaves much to be desired. Horton can't be counted on to carry the Panthers, hes just not that kind of a player. Theres also rumors that he is unhappy in Florida, and really, who wouldn't be unhappy in Florida? Jay Bouwmeester won't be the after the trade deadline either.

You mention not many "star" players will be dealt in one of your posts above, then go on to mention Hossa and Stillman in the same sentence. Stillman is a great winger, but I wouldn't mention him in the sentence as a star like Hossa...I mean if you're talking "star" or "superstar" type players like Hossa, then those kind of players are rarely traded period, let alone at the trade deadline.

My point, as I clearly expressed before, is that there is plenty of players being rumored available for the right price, and plenty of potential for this to be a busy trade deadline.

[Zipper14]

Do you think San Jose and Pittsburgh could work out a deal for Cheechoo? He would be a great fit with Sidney. Though I can't think of what the Penguins have to offer.

If not, we could always see Recchi heading back to Pittsburgh.

Hejduk will probably be a highly pursued guy. He's an all star and a pure sniper.

[The Hockey Hitman]

If I was Pittsburgh I would go after Hejduk first...then maybe see about Cheechoo. But yeah I think a deal could happen because with Ryane Clowe scheduled to become a RFA this summer, something is gonna have to give in San Jose.

I don't think Recchi will go back to Pittsburgh because he didn't really have nice things to say about them when they waived him early last season. But maybe so...he certainly has more trade value right now than anyone could have guessed he would. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa get a draft pick as high as the 2nd round, or maybe a really good young prospect plus a 3rd or 4th rounder.

[idiopathic]

Thanks for breaking everything down, It makes it much more easy to follow.

First, I happen to follow Atlanta pretty close, and I haven't heard a single rumor involving Kovalchuck this season. If it's something not mainstream, I can't count that as a credible source.... But, stranger things have happened. I just don't see Atlanta trading their lone Star player.

Backstrom is the Engine of that team. What would they be without him? Him and the Defense is the only reason their remotely close to a playoff berth. Yes, coaching has aspect to it, but it's about the players on the ice. Harding is still raw, hasn't gotten a full NHL season yet. He has done nothing to win the job, so it's Backstrom's to lose.

Resign or not, Gaborik won't return this season. I can't see the original Wild member going out like that. I just don't see it from a fan/fantasy point of view.

I will admit I don't know as much about Pittsburgh, though. Sure they have some young guys on defense, but who says Golgoski and Letang are better than Whitney? Are you only talking about injury-prone-ness?

Horton is a nice player to get at the deadline. I just don't see Florida breaking up what "good" and young talent they have. Lets face it, they haven't been relevant for awhile, and I just don't see them giving up on future years.... maybe next year they add a few pieces around Booth and Horton, and they do something.

And Finally, the Hossa and Stillman trade was mearly an attempt to show that players who are having good to great seasons in that respective year can get traded. But that it won't happen this year, IMO. Stillman had a nice year and Hossa almost helped Pitt win the cup. So, I'm just speculating that this year will not be a huge market for big name guys at the end of the deadline, because I do not see many names up in the air. The only one being Lecavalier, and I would be shocked if that occurred.

[Zoom Waffles]

Just to clear up Pittsburgh stuff...

Whitney isn't injury prone, he had a persistent foot issue that was corrected by surgery last summer. Other than that, he's always been healthy.

Letang is an incredibly talented young defenseman. But I think he's the future of Pittsburgh's defense, and they won't let him go.

Whitney has made some errors since returning, but most fans are blaming that on a hasty return. Whit started playing 25+ minutes immediately after coming back from missing half the season. That'll kill anyone's confidence.

Goligoski is a threat to walk with restricted free agency this summer, I think. They've been benching him consistently, which can't feel good, especially when you were your team's top-scoring defenseman through the first 25 games. Goligoski is better on the point than Letang, but not quite as good offensively. He's young, but he's not going to develop in the press box. He's a $2 million player right now, in my opinion, and we know Pittsburgh can't offer him that. They need to trade him before he walks on his own.


And just to mention the Kovalchuk situation... Kovie was the center of HUGE trade rumors in December that came from reliable sources all over. The Kings and Habs were said to be the front runners. Seemingly in response to those rumors, Atlanta brass named him Captain. That, to me, is their way of saying "Don't worry, Ilya, we like you." The rumors were definitely there, but now I have a feeling he'll stick around. At least for another year.

[bu11durm]

Not sure I've seen any rumors about Backstrom, but have seen a lot of speculation. Several national articles suggesting they think he'll get traded if they aren't a playoff lock.
While he might be their MVP this year, they aren't going to pay the salary he will command. Not even close. They are off millions at tihs point. So if Backstrom isn't going to be there next year, shouldn't they get something for him before he's gone?

[Zoom Waffles]

The thing about Gaborik (not to change the subject too much on your bu11durm) is that nobody wants him for the playoff run. If the guy isn't playing in the playoffs, what team is going to bother wasting talent in a trade? They know they can just take him in the off-season. Right?

[idiopathic]

Exactly my point on Gabby, Zoom. I just dont see him going anywhere this season.

Though, you may have heard about the Kings interest in Kovy, I've only heard speculation of him playing in Europe.

I think a deal will be made for Backstrom, and he will stay. I have said this before and also talked about it in Idio-Logic, that Harding, will be the one on the move if anything. From what I heard in the fall was that the Flyers were interested in aquiring him. It's early yet, and lots can happen. I'm really focused on what Tampa will do with Lecav.... If he was to be traded, it would make shockwaves through both teams.

[The Hockey Hitman]

Feb 2, 2009 0:07:02 GMT -5 idiopathic said:

First, I happen to follow Atlanta pretty close, and I haven't heard a single rumor involving Kovalchuck this season. If it's something not mainstream, I can't count that as a credible source.... But, stranger things have happened. I just don't see Atlanta trading their lone Star player.

Don't worry, I follow the Thrashers pretty closely too, I probably know just as much about them as I do Tampa Bay.

But the rumors are out there...obviously since you're saying you've not heard a single rumor about it you've just missed out apparently. No biggie. I promise you if I state something its for a reason and it could happen.

Feb 2, 2009 0:07:02 GMT -5 idiopathic said:

Backstrom is the Engine of that team. What would they be without him? Him and the Defense is the only reason their remotely close to a playoff berth. Yes, coaching has aspect to it, but it's about the players on the ice. Harding is still raw, hasn't gotten a full NHL season yet. He has done nothing to win the job, so it's Backstrom's to lose.

Sorry we're just going to flat out disagree on this one. Because I don't see how you could say that Backstrom is the "engine" of Minnesota.

That would mean that he is what makes everything work there...and thats just not the case. Jacques Lemaire has been the coach since the Wild's 1st season, like I stated earlier its pretty clear that he is the engine of the Wild, if you're going to dub something "the engine" that is.

Lemaire's defense first system, with the emphasis on positional hockey - is what makes Minnesota a competitive hockey team. I'm not trying to discredit Nicklas Backstrom, because he is a great goaltender. But hes doing exactly the same thing that Manny Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson did for the Wild. Fernandez was essentially cast off from Dallas and became the goaltender he is today while playing in Minnesota. Dwayne Roloson was considered a journeyman and a longshot for the Wild when he first came onboard but he found success there too.

I think they could easily trade Backstrom and Harding could develop into a fine starter. I like Backstrom more than Harding, personally, but the simple fact that they are so far apart in negotiations with Backstrom shows that Minny may be thinking in a different direction.

[idiopathic]

But, don't you think given Harding is so raw, that it would just be too risky handing over the job to him outright if Backstrom was traded? Minn isn't really banging the door down as far as scorers on their team go, so who's going to help? That concerns me.

And, as for Lemaire, I was not discrediting him at all. I am a fantasy minded hockey fan first, and that is my fault. But, I have to go with production on the ice. Without the players doing their jobs, and having a talent level good enough to compete, coaching can only do so much.

Backstrom is very talented, and I believe he'll be back. Thats just my opinion.

[Zoom Waffles]

it seems to me that trading backstrom would be a big risk... who knows what harding is really capable of. That said, backstrom is going to get you a MUCH greater return. Backstrom is going to command some 5mil this year, I think, and with Gaborik most likely leaving, Minny has some huge holes to fill on offense. I wouldn't be surprised if they let Backstrom go simply to beef up and round out the offense enough to make them truly competitive.

Don't forget, we only see Harding a few times a year, but they see him every single day in practice. They're not going to let backstrom go unless they truly believe Harding can do the job. But none of us know if he can, one way or the other.

[The Hockey Hitman]

Like I said personally I like Backstrom more, and I also think they should re-sign him. Theres plenty of reasons for them to re-sign him, but an argument can be made against it also. I'd say its 50-50 they re-sign him at this point. I think if they aren't in playoff contention come the trading deadline they will deal him, absolutely. I also think on the open market Backstrom could get around $6 million per season...theres enough teams out there who are looking for a true no. 1 goaltender. Another veteran goaltender would have to come back to Minny in the deal to compete for the no. 1 spot with Harding...or maybe they share the duties as Fernandez/Roloson once did.

[idiopathic]

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds

[Zipper14]

I think they'll trade Backstrom. I think the team will believe it's the system that gets all the great numbers for Backstrom and dish him. This year's draft is just as good as last year's and an extra pick in that first round could change the face of your franchise.

Harding is solid, and they can use the last third of this year to figure out if he can be a #1 guy.

The Wild also has Nolan Schaffer in the minors. Isn't he a highly touted guy? Solid numbers in the minors at least.